[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 16 09:50:47 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last
24 hours. No significant activity was recorded today- the
largest flare being a B2.9 at 1222UT. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 530 km/s to 440 km/s (approx.)
during the UT day. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations
on both sides of the normal value throughout the day. The
solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low levels
during the next three days. Region 682(S14E36) holds potential
for C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 2223 2212
Darwin 8 2223 3213
Townsville 8 2223 3113
Learmonth 7 2212 3212
Culgoora 7 2213 2212
Canberra 7 2232 2212
Hobart 7 2223 2112
Casey(Ant) 13 44-2 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 86 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 27 3445 5332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 10 Mostly quiet. Unsettled periods possible.
17 Oct 10 Mostly quiet. Unsettled periods possible.
18 Oct 10 Mostly quiet. Unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next three
days as the effect of the current coronal hole diminishes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal-fair Fair-normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at low and mid latitudes during the next three days. Minor
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
be observed on high latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of minor
to significant depressions and degradations over the
UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 40 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 40 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. However, minor
depressions and degradations in the Southern Aus/NZ regions
may be observed at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 530 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 164000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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