[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 5 09:49:55 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hrs. The only
activity coming from a C2.6 Class flare with an associated non-earth
directed CME originating from the east limb. The solar wind velocity
rose from 360km/s to a maximum of 420km/s at 1730UT after which
it fell to be 380km/s at the time of this report. The north south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-10nT from 0000UT to 1300UT after which it settled
to be neutral at the time of this report. A small coronal hole
has moved into geoeffective position in the last 24 hours. Similar
Solar conditions are expected to continue for the next few days
with an increase in the possibility of C-Class events. No growth
or increase in magnetic complexity of any of the current solar
regions on disc was observed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 2322 2222
Darwin 7 2222 2222
Townsville 7 2222 3122
Learmonth 7 2222 2221
Culgoora 8 2322 2222
Canberra 8 2322 2222
Hobart 8 2322 2222
Casey(Ant) 12 34-3 2123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 15 1234 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed, with a
small coronal hole moving into geoeffective position in the last
24 hours. These conditions are expected to continue for the next
2 days with possible isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed for all latitudes over the
past 24 hours with slight local overnight depressions observed
for low to mid latitudes. Conditions expected to be mostly normal
for all regions over the next few days with the chance of isolated
degraded conditions for higher latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed over all regions with slight
overnight depressions observed for Northern-Australia/Equatorial
regions as well as Southern AUS/NZ. These conditions are expected
to continue for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 54700 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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