[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 4 09:41:33 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Oct             05 Oct             06 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hrs. The 
only activity coming from Region 676 which produced two minor 
B-Class events. The solar wind velocity rose from 360km/s at 
0000UT to 380km/s at 0400UT where it remained so to the time 
of this report. The north south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT from 0000UT to 
0600UT after which it went south and oscillated between neutral 
and a maximum of -8nT, which corresponded to an Active geomagnetic 
period between 1100UT and 1600UT. Similar Solar conditions are 
expected to continue for the next two days with no observed growth 
or increase in magnetic complexity of any of the current solar 
regions on disc. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Unsettled to active 

Estimated Indices 03 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   1124 5323
      Darwin              11   1123 4322
      Townsville          16   1224 5323
      Learmonth           16   0124 5333
      Culgoora            14   1124 5223
      Canberra            16   1134 5323
      Hobart              14   1234 4322
      Casey(Ant)          13   2-33 4222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   2333 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours with with an isolated Active period from 1100UT 
to 1600UT, as Bz went south from 0600UT with a maximum of -8nT 
in the Active period. Similar conditions are expected to continue 
for the next 2 days with possible isolated Active periods. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed for all latitudes over the 
past 24 hours. Conditions expected to be mostly normal for all 
regions over the next few days with slight chance of isolated 
periods of degraded conditions for higher latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Oct    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
05 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
06 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal conditions observed over all regions. These conditions 
are expected to continue for the next few days, with a chance 
of isolated periods of degraded HF conditions for Southern AUS/NZ 
region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    76100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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