[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low again over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind conditions also calm, with an increasing trend toward 
the end of the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was mostly neutral, a trend southward is visible 
at the time of issue of this report. This is probably due to 
a coronal hole, now in the western solar hemisphere (SOHO EIT284). 
None of the new regions that have recently rotated onto the solar 
disk have produced any significant activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1131 1232
      Darwin              11   1-41 124-
      Townsville           6   2121 1232
      Learmonth            5   0121 1232
      Culgoora             4   1121 1222
      Canberra             4   0220 1222
      Hobart               4   1220 1121
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-42 0233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov     6    Quiet 
21 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet conditons. Very mild recurrent pattern 
of unsettled activity for 21-22 Nov. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
most locations during the next three days. Minor degradation 
possible at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Nov    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov    55    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Nov    55    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Nov    55    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    64200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"