[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low again over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind conditions also calm. A new solar region has roateted 
onto the solar disk. This region has been numbered 704 by US 
Space environment Centre. This region appears relatively simple 
at this stage. No active region has rotated around the north-east 
limb, since the behind the limb CME was observed on 16 Nov. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2110 1111
      Darwin               2   2100 1112
      Townsville           2   2100 0112
      Learmonth            3   1310 0111
      Culgoora             2   2100 0111
      Canberra             1   1000 1101
      Hobart               2   1110 1101
      Casey(Ant)           8   3332 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1132 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov     6    Quiet 
20 Nov     6    Quiet 
21 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence ppatterns suggest that quiet geomagnetic 
conditions can be expected next two days. Very mild recurrent 
pattern of unsettled activity for 21 Nov. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
most locations during the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Nov    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Initially depressed 10-15% 00-05UT.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Initially depressed 15% 00-05UT.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov    55    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
20 Nov    55    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Nov    55    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were unexpectedly depressed 
10-20% for the first 5 hours of the UT day. MUFs then recovered 
to near to above predicted monthly values. HF Communications 
Warning 51 was issued in response to this depression. The HF 
conditions are expected to remain mostly near to 15% above normal 
in Aus/NZ region during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    99800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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