[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 17 10:35:33 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 108/58

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region 
700(N04W68) produced a few B-class and low C-class 
flares, the largest event being a C1.4 at 0013UT. The 
solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 390 
to 450 km/s (approx.) by 1400UT and then showed a 
gradual decrease to 410 by the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) remained slightly positive during the first 
two hours and then showed minor to moderate fluctuations 
on both sides of the normal value during the rest of the 
UT day. A non-earthward directed CME was observed 
(0450UT/16 November) from the north-eastern limb and it 
seems to have come from a region (possibly the previously 
X-flare producing region 691) behind the limb which may 
rotate onto the solar disk during the next two days. The 
background X-ray flux has not risen yet and the sunspots 
of this region are also not visible at this time. The 
rotation of this region onto the solar disk may cause some 
rise in the solar activity possibly to low to moderate 
levels on 18 and 19 November. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   1223 3322
      Darwin               8   1222 3322
      Townsville           8   1223 2322
      Learmonth           11   1223 4323
      Culgoora             8   1222 3322
      Canberra            13   1232 4422
      Hobart              12   1332 4323
      Casey(Ant)          15   2--4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0010 1110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov     6    Quiet 
18 Nov     6    Quiet 
19 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days. A weak 
(21nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1446UT on 16 Nov. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Nov    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with periods
      of degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov    55    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%. 
18 Nov    55    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%. 
19 Nov    55    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%. 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most areas of Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    91400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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