[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 16 10:30:17 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region
700(N14W54) produced a few B-class and low C-class
flares, the largest event being a C1.5 at 0925UT.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from
460 to 400 km/s (approx.) during the UT day, except
for a few hours between 0600UT and 0900UT when the
solar wind speed increased to 500 km/s (approx.).
The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both
sides of the normal value until 0600UT and then
remained slightly positive during the rest of the
UT day. Region 700 has shown significant growth in
area during the last 24 hours and has been maintaining
its magnetic complexity. This region holds potential
for C-class flares, or may be an isolated M-class flare.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 2111 0002
Darwin 3 2111 1012
Townsville 2 2111 0013
Learmonth 2 1211 0001
Culgoora 1 1111 0002
Canberra 1 1210 0001
Hobart 1 1110 0002
Casey(Ant) 7 3--- 2111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 4222 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 7 Mostly quiet.
17 Nov 6 Quiet
18 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days with
some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 16 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations during the next three days
with some possiblity of minor degradations on high
latitudes on 16 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 40 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
17 Nov 44 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
18 Nov 44 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most areas of Aus/NZ regions during the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list