[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 14 10:42:08 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. Only a
few B-class flares were observed. The solar wind speed
showed a gradual decrease from 550 to 460 km/s (approx.)
by 0900UT and then kept fluctuating between 460 and 500 km/s
during the rest of the UT day. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained slightly
southwards until 1100UT (approx.) and then showed minor
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value during the
rest of the UT day. The >10 MeV proton event, that started
on 07 November, has ended. Isolated C-class flares may be
possible during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 1123 2222
Darwin 7 1122 2323
Townsville 7 1122 2323
Learmonth 8 1123 3312
Culgoora 5 1122 2222
Canberra 7 1133 2212
Hobart 8 1133 2222
Casey(Ant) 10 2333 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 NOV :
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Hobart 102 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 30 5545 4334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
15 Nov 6 Mostly quiet.
16 Nov 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days with
some possibility of isolated unsettled periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : Began at 1915UT 07/11, Ended at 1510UT 13/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Significant degradations in HF conditions
continued on high latitudes today as well. HF conditions
on high latitudes are expected to return to normal today
and remain normal on 15 and 16 November, as the >10 MeV
proton event has ended. HF conditions on low and mid
latitudes are also expected to remain normal during
the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Minor to moderate depressions on some stations.
Strongly degraded conditions on some stations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 15 near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
16 Nov 18 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: Mild to significant depressions in MUFs were
observed in most parts of the Aus/NZ region during the
last 24 hours. The HF conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal in most areas of Aus/NZ regions during the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 593 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 74900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list