[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 13 10:59:13 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. Only
a B7.8 flare, from region 699(S14E26), was recorded in
association with a Type II event and a faint CME from
the south-eastern limb. This CME is not earthward
directed. Region 696 is showing decay while rotating
around the west limb. The solar wind speed showed
a sudden rise from 600 to 730 km/s (approx.) around
0200UT and then showed a gradual decrease to 550 km/s
by the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) went south
to approximately 10nT around 0200UT and then showed
moderate to small N/S fluctuations. Bz remained mostly
slightly positive between 0900UT and 1400UT and slightly
negative during the rest of the day thereafter. Isolated
C-class flares may be possible during the next three days.
The >10MeV proton event is expected to end on 13 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 27 4455 3333
Darwin 23 4354 3334
Townsville 26 3455 3333
Learmonth 27 4355 3343
Culgoora 26 3455 3333
Canberra 26 3455 3333
Hobart 26 4454 3433
Casey(Ant) 35 5-64 4333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 NOV :
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 80 (Active)
Canberra 89 (Minor storm)
Hobart 167 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 23 4544 2324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 15 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
14 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled
15 Nov 8 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at
unsettled to active levels on 13 November as the effect of
the CMEs, observed on 9 and 10 November, subsides. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline to
unsettled and then quiet levels during the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-poor Normal-poor Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs have shown significant depressions on almost
all locations during the last 24 hours. Significant
degradations in HF conditions have also been observed during
this period, particularyl at high latitudes. Significant
degradations may also be observed at high latitude due to
the continuing >10MeV proton event which is expected to end
on 13 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 15 near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 25 near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 35 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 12 November
and is current for interval 12-13 November. HF conditions have
been significantly degraded during the past 24 hours at almost
all latitudes with depressions of 20-40% and higher at times.
The HF conditions may show minor to moderate degradations in
Souther Australian/NZ regions on 13 November and then return
to normal during the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.9E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 586 km/sec Density: 7.8 p/cc Temp: 30500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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