[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M2.3/1N    1549UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 124/77


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate, 
with region 696 producing a long duration C7.9 flare and an associated 
proton event. This flare at 0325UT produced a faint full halo 
CME as seen on the LASCO C3 imagery and is expected to be geoeffective, 
arriving on the 10Nov, which will follow the anticipated strong 
shock arrival of the X2.0 event from 07Nov. Region 696 also produced 
a C7.7 Class event at 1430UT and a M2.3 class event at 1545UT. 
The proton event is still curently in progress, and has been 
added to by the long duration C7.9 flare. Region 696 remains 
quite large in sunspot size but underwent a small amount of decay 
in the last 24 hours. It still retains a level of magnetic complexity 
that suggests further C and M-Class events are possible. The 
solar wind velocity was high, at 750km/s at 0400UT and gradually 
declined over the UT day to be 600km/s at the time of this report.