[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 8 11:13:52 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.0 1606UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High, with
region 696 producing many C-Class events and a X2.0 Class event
at 1545UT. Lasco C3 imagery for the 7th of November is not available
to confirm a CME. An associated proton event is currently in
progress arising from the X2-Class event. Region 696 remains
quite large in sunspot size and retains a level of magnetic compexity
that suggests further C and M-Class events are possible. A shock
front from a CME from the 03Nov or 04Nov was observed and has
resulted in Major Geomagnetic Storm conditons. At 1000UT the
solar wind velocity increased by 50km/s and began to steadily
rise from 430km/s to 500km/s at 1755UT at which it then rose
sharply to be at 700km/s at the time of this report. Simarly
the north south component of the interplanetary magentic field
Bz, indicated the shock arrivals with step impulse changes in
its magnitude of 20nT at 1755UT after which it turned southwards
to be -40nT at the time of this report. The magentometer on the
GOES satellite indicated a probable Geo-synchronous crossing
of the magnetosphere exposing it to the solar wind stream as
seen in its recorded data. There also appears to be another region
significant region approaching the southeast limb that should
roate on disc within the next few days.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0153UT
on 07 Nov, and a possible weak shock was observed in the solar
wind at 0958UT on 07 Nov, and a strong shock was observed in
the solar wind at 1754UT on 07 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 27 2324 4467
Darwin 25 2324 3466
Townsville 30 2325 4467
Learmonth 32 2225 4567
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 35 1324 4477
Hobart 32 1314 3477
Casey(Ant) 34 ---4 3366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 NOV :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 60 Storm levels
09 Nov 50 Storm levels
10 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 8-10 November. Geomagnetic activity
was Quiet to Major Storm levels over the last 24 hours.A shock
arival from a CME on 03/04 November has resulted in the current
storm conditions. There is also a proton event curently taking
place from a X2-Class event that occured at 1545UT. Storm conditions
are expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours after which
another shock front arrival could occur if a full halo CME was
produced from the X2-Class event today (LASCO C3 imagery wasnt
available to confirm this).
A weak (33nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1053UT on 07 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
09 Nov Poor Poor Poor
10 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be depressed for the next
24-36 hours due to the current geomagnetic storm conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 10 depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
09 Nov 10 depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 30 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 9-10 November. Depressed HF conditions
forecast for the next 24-36hrs due to the arrival of shock fronts
from recent CME activity on 03/04Nov resulting in Major Geomagnetic
Storm levels. A proton event is also currently in progress and
will affect transpolar communications. Depressed conditions expected
for all Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 31600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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