[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 3 10:04:33 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Background xray flux has risen to just over the C1 level
over the past 24 hours. This may be due to development in solar
region 696 in the solar northeast quadrant which shows growth
in SOHO MDI white light imagery. Other on disk regions did not
produce any significant xray flare activity over the past 24
hours. The larget event being a C9.8 from region 689 in the far
north-west solar quadrant. No Type II/IV radio sweeps were reported
with this event. No mass ejection visible in SOHO LASCO C3 imagery.
ACE EPAM channels show a weak enhancedment, possibly suggesting
that one coronal mass ejection arrival is a non event. Solar
wind speed over the past 24 hours declined from 390km/sec at
00UT to 340km/sec at 11UT, before increasing to 400km/sec at
the end of the UT day. Other ACE parameters suggest that this
increase is due to a wind stream from a small equatorial coronal
hole now located in the solar western hemisphere. Some east limb
features visible at S7 and N14 in Culgoora H-alpha imagery may
indicate that some solar regions may rotate ondisk in coming
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 1112 1122
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 4 1112 1122
Learmonth 3 1012 1122
Culgoora 4 1112 1122
Canberra 3 0-12 1112
Hobart 3 0112 1112
Casey(Ant) 7 2331 1122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2111 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 20 active
04 Nov 12 Unsettled
05 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Forecast increase in geomagnetic activity failed to
eventuate over past 24 hours. Active periods expected for today
due to possible arrival of recent mass ejections. The longer
the travel time for these recent mass ejections will weaken any
induced activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : Began at 0705UT 01/11, Ended at 1825UT 01/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Forecast degradation in HF conditions did not eventuate
due to anticpated arrival of recent coronal mass ejections not
eventuating. Degraded conditions may be experienced today if
coronal mass ejections arrive.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 97
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20-35%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 90 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
04 Nov 70 Possible 15% depression after local dawn, southern
region. Northern region 15% enhanced.
05 Nov 90 about 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 30 October
and is current for interval 2-3 November. Forecast of MUF depression
did not eventuate. Good HF conditions now expected for today.
There is a chance for degraded conditions on 04 Nov, southern
Aus/NZ region only if recent solar mass ejections induce geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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