[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 1 10:16:45 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0226UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2/SF 0532UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar region 691 (N14W34) produced the M2 event, which
was associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps, implying a
mass ejection. Subsequent review of LASCO spaced based coronagraph
imagery was difficult due to previous CME activity. A series of weak
to moderate shocks are expected late 01-03 Nov. Solar region
691 produced a small sub-faint flare this morning at 2126UT visible
on Culgoora H-apha imagery, so further flare activity remains possible
from this region. The Culgoora radiospectrograph shows weak type
III emissions since local dawn. Solar wind speed was mildly elevated
at around 440km/sec over the UT day. Also, a new region may be rotating
onto the solar disk at S04 on the east solar limb as a region
prominence appears at this location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 3213 3222
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 8 2213 3222
Learmonth 8 2212 3322
Culgoora - ---- ---0
Canberra 11 3213 3322
Hobart 8 2213 3221
Casey(Ant) 15 44-3 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 17 4334 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 20 active
02 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
03 Nov 16 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 30 October
and is current for interval 1-2 November. Coronal mass ejection(s)
expected to induce activity from late 01-03 Nov. Activity level
reduced due to short duration of solar events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : None, Recent weak 10Mev enhancement has ended.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
03 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Moderately degraded HF conditions expected for late
01 and 02 Nov at high latitudes, due to recent coronal mass ejections.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 63
n
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 80 Enhanced 15-20%/depressed 10-15% late in UT day.
02 Nov 25 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 25 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 30 October
and is current for interval 2-3 November. Initially normal to
good HF conditions are expected for today. Solar coronal mass
ejections is expected to cause degraded conditions late 02-03
Nov for southern Aus/NZ region only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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