[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 1 09:54:50 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A few B-class
flares and a C1.7 flare were recorded. The C1.7 flare
came from new region 602(S14W54) at 0547UT. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 520 km/s to 360 km/s
(approx.) by 1300UT. It then showed a gradual increase
and went up to 450 km/s by 1900UT and remained nearly
steady at this level until the time of this report.
This strengthening in the solar wind seems to have been
caused due to earth's entry into high speed solar wind
stream of a coronal hole, which was anticipated to affect
the earth about 1 to 2 days later. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to
moderate fluctuations (upto approx. +8nT and -10nT) around
the normal values- remaining mostly southwards. Region
599(N17W42) has shown decay during the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 2221 1134
Darwin 6 2221 1134
Townsville 8 2221 1244
Learmonth 6 2221 1133
Culgoora 5 1221 1133
Canberra 9 -321 1144
Hobart 5 1221 1134
Casey(Ant) 8 3231 1134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 APR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 16 Quiet to active.
02 May 20 Unsettled to active
03 May 20 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity showed a rise in the
second half of the UT day today. This may have been caused
due to earth's entry into a coronal hole induced high speed
solar wind stream. The geomagnetic activity may remain
enhanced during the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions are
possible at mid and high latitudes during the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods
of minor to significant degradations and depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 48 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
5%.
02 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
03 May 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions may be observed, especially
in the southern Aus/NZ regions during the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: A5.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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