[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60
COMMENT: The solar disk has been quiet over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed remains steady at around 450km/sec over past 
24 hours. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mostly neutral over the UT day. A narrow north polar 
extension coronal hole is now at the centre of the solar disk. 
This narrow hole may produce a brief mild increase in solar wind 
speed around 19-20 Mar. Two new solar regions are expected to 
rotate onto the solar disk just north of the solar equator in 
coming days. There is an outside chance of a very weak shock 
on 17 Mar from a recent erupting filament. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2212 2322
      Darwin               7   2212 1322
      Townsville           7   2212 1323
      Learmonth            8   3212 1322
      Culgoora             7   2202 2322
      Canberra             8   2213 2322
      Hobart               8   2213 2322
      Casey(Ant)          14   34-2 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            79   (Active)
      Hobart              45   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   4323 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
18 Mar     4    Quiet 
19 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Generally quiet conditions expected. The solar filament 
may cause active periods on 17 Mar. A coronal hole may cause 
active periods during 19-20 Mar. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradation 
possible 17 Mar and 19 Mar for mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs are generally expected to return to near predicted 
monthly values over the next few days. Mildly degraded HF communication 
conditions may be experienced local nigt hours 17 and 19-20 Mar. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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