[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 7 10:37:33 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1217UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Region 570 produced a long duration M1 level flare at
1210UT. LASCO imagery is not available at the time of report
preparation to determine whether a CME accompanied this event.
There was no radio sweep reported in association with this flare.
The east limb location of Region 570 would indicate a low probability
of geoeffective consequence. Region 570 is the apparent source
of recently reported east limb loop prominence activity. Regions
567 and 570 appear capable of further C- to M-class flare activity.
Solar wind parameters have now declined to nominal values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 1111 0002
Darwin 1 1111 0002
Townsville 2 1111 0012
Learmonth 1 2101 0001
Culgoora 0 1100 0002
Canberra 1 1101 0001
Hobart 2 1211 0002
Casey(Ant) 8 3332 1011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 MAR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 1222 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 6 Quiet
08 Mar 6 Quiet
09 Mar 25 active
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters have now declined to nominal values.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected at low to mid
latitudes, with possible isolated unsettled periods at high latitudes,
for days one and two. The onset of a negative polarity recurrent
coronal hole wind stream is anticipated on day three, bringing
a return to active conditions. There is a minor possibility of
a weak solar wind shock today following the CME observed late
in the UT day 04 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
09 Mar Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed at low latitudes
yesterday. Possible isolated disturbances at high latitudes today,
otherwise HF conditions should be mostly normal next two days.
A recurrent high speed coronal hole wind stream is anticipated
by day three. Several days of degraded HF conditions at mid to
high latitudes are expected to follow.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 10% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 55 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Mar 60 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed N Aus region.
Equatorial spread-F conditions observed, extending at times to
N Aus region. Evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus region.
Spread-F conditions observed generally in Antarctic regions.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions days one and two. The onset
of a recurrent high speed coronal hole wind stream is anticipated
by day three. Several days of degraded HF conditions at mid to
high latitudes are expected to follow.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: N/A
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: N/A
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: N/A
X-ray background: N/A
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 72500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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