[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: A filament eruption was observed in LASCO EIT 195 imagery 
in the NW quadrant late in the UT day 04 Mar. This was followed 
by a weak north-directed CME. A minor geoeffective solar wind 
shock is possible on day two due to this event. Newly numbered 
region 570 produced two mid-C class flares today. Considerable 
loop prominence activity was observed again today behind the 
SE limb. Regions 567 and 570 appear capable of isolated C- to 
M-class flare activity. Solar wind parameters continue to decline 
from the previous high velocity coronal hole wind stream. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1222 1112
      Darwin               4   1222 0112
      Townsville           3   1122 1013
      Learmonth            3   1222 0101
      Culgoora             3   1121 0112
      Canberra             3   1222 0002
      Hobart               4   1222 1112
      Casey(Ant)          15   3-43 3321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2213 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar     8    Quiet, isolated unsettled periods 
07 Mar     8    Mostly quiet 
08 Mar     8    Mostly quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline over the UT day. 
IMF Bz polarity was mostly northward. A period of southward IMF 
early in the UT day preceded isolated active intervals observed 
at high latitudes only. Expect continuing decline in solar wind 
parameters today, with mostly quiet conditions for the next three 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions observed at mid latitudes 
yesterday. Possible isolated disturbances at high latitudes today, 
otherwise HF conditions should be mostly normal next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Mar    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Mar    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Mar    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable minor daytime depressions observed S Aus region. 
Evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus region. Spread-F conditions 
observed generally in Antarctic regions. Expect improving HF 
conditions today and mostly normal conditions next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 585 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   137000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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