[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 20 09:50:26 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours.
Region 635 was the source of numerous C-Class and B-Class events,
the largest being a C3.0 class event at 1930UT. Region 635 remains
magnetically complex and Region 634 has shown a small amount
of growth. Both regions still have the potential for producing
possible M-class events. The solar wind speed declined from an
average of 480km/s for the first half of the day to be at 440km/s
for the remainder. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/- 5nT till 1100UT where
upon it went south with a magnitude of -4nT. At 1800UT Bz returned
to nuetral. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the
next few days, with the chance of a possible M class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 1122 1101
Darwin 2 1111 1101
Townsville 3 1112 1101
Learmonth 3 2122 1001
Culgoora 3 1121 1101
Canberra 2 1112 1000
Hobart 2 1112 1000
Casey(Ant) 7 2332 1100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JUN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Culgoora 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 1223 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24
hours. These conditions are expected to continue over the next
few days with the chance of isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal to good on low
to mid latitudes. Minor depressions possible at high lattitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 55 near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 55 near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to good HF conditions are expected over the next
2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 147000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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