[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 19 09:40:09 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Only 
one C-class event was observed, a C1.8 class flare originating 
from region 635 at 1620UT, along with a minor B-class event from 
both regions 634 and 635. Region 635's magnetic composition remains 
complex and has the potential for producing possible M-class 
events. Both regions 634 and 635 remain unchanged in thier size 
though. The solar wind speed was steady for most of the day at 
around 500km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/- 5nT for the entire 
UT day. Solar activity is expected to remin low over the next 
few days, with the slight chance of a possible M class event. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   1212 3211
      Darwin               5   2112 2212
      Townsville           4   1212 2111
      Learmonth            7   1222 3211
      Culgoora             5   1222 2122
      Canberra             7   1213 3211
      Hobart               7   1113 3211
      Casey(Ant)           9   3223 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JUN : 
      Townsville           7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            18   (Quiet)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1322 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun    11    Quiet to unsettled 
20 Jun    11    Quiet to unsettled 
21 Jun    11    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24 
hours. These conditions are expected to continue over the next 
few days with isolated unsettled periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on 
low to mid latitudes. Minor to moderate degradations at high 
latitudes are possible over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    50    near predicted monthly values 
20 Jun    55    near predicted monthly values 
21 Jun    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
over the next 2 days, with minor depressions and degradations 
possible for Southern Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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