[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 17 09:54:19 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. At 0420UT
there was a C2.8 class flare associated with a CME originating
from the east limb. From the LASCO C3 imagery it was seen to
be non earth bound. This event was also associated with a Type
II sweep as seen on the Culgoora Spectrograph which with an estimated
shock speed of 2000km/s. The solar wind speed began to decrease
at 1100UT from 650km/ to 500km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) fluctuated between +/- 5nT for the entire day, with quite
rapid changes in polarity from 0000UT to 1300UT. Region 634 and
635 hold potential for M-class activity. The solar activity is
expected to remain mostly low to moderate during the next few
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 2232 2102
Darwin 9 223- ----
Townsville 9 223- ----
Learmonth 7 2332 2002
Culgoora 7 2232 2111
Canberra 6 2232 2102
Hobart 9 223- ----
Casey(Ant) 15 333- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 2153 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
18 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
19 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
unsettled to active for the next two days due to a coronal hole
effect. Slight possibility of isolated minor storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on low latitudes during the next two days. Minor degradations
on mid latitudes and minor to moderate degradations on high latitudes
are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
18 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next 2 days. However, minor depressions and degradations
are possible, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 201000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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