[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 16 09:44:46 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region
634(N11E47) produced a C1.1-flare at 2001UT. The solar
wind speed gradually increased from 450 to 560 km/s
(approx.) during the UT day. This strengthening of the
solar wind stream is due to the previously anticipated
coronal hole effect. This effect is expected to continue
for approximately two more days. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
between +/- 10nT almost the whole day, remaining mostly on
the negative side. Region 634 and 635 hold potential for
M-class activity. The solar activity is expected to remain
mostly low to moderate during the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 2232 4322
Darwin 14 2332 4332
Townsville 12 2232 4322
Learmonth 14 2332 4332
Culgoora 12 2232 4322
Canberra 12 2232 4322
Hobart 12 2232 4322
Casey(Ant) 13 1333 4322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JUN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 2133 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 16 Unsettled to Active
17 Jun 16 Unsettled to Active
18 Jun 14 Mostly unsettled. Quiet and Active periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly enhanced upto active levels during the next two
days due to a coronal hole effect. The effect may be
intermittent. There may also be a slight possibility of
isolated minor storm periods during these two days if Bz
remains significantly negative.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on low latitudes during the next two days. Minor
degradations on mid latitudes and minor to moderate
degradations on high latitudes are possible during this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 25% with periods of
significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
17 Jun 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
18 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal during the next 2 days. However, minor depressions
and degradations are possible, especially in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 50100 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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