[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 2 10:44:50 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few C-class
flares were observed, the largest being a C8 at 0654UT.
Region 536(S11E72) has been quite active and it produced
a long duration C8 flare that peaked at 2217UT on 31 December.
The solar wind stream remains strengthened due to the continuing
coronal hole effect. The solar wind speed increased from 500
to 600 km/s (approx) by 2200UT and then decreased to 540 km/s
(approx) by the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) kept fluctuating
between +10 and -10nT almost the whole day, staying south for
relatively longer periods. The effect of this coronal hole is
expected to diminish by late hours on 02 January or in the first
half of 03 January. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly
at low levels during the next three days although there is some
possibility of isolated M-flares from regions 536 and 534(S06E27).
A coronal hole is also taking geo-effective position and may
strengthen the solar wind stream 04 January onwards.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Unsettled to
active with isolated minor storm periods recorded at some high
latitude locations.
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 18 3343 4333
Darwin 15 3333 3333
Townsville 16 3333 4333
Learmonth 15 3233 4333
Culgoora 15 3333 4233
Canberra 17 3343 4233
Hobart 20 3344 4332
Casey(Ant) 30 5-54 4334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 JAN :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Culgoora 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 82 (Minor storm)
Hobart 79 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 17 3223 4543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 18 Unsettled to active
03 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled
04 Jan 35 Unsettled to Minor Storm
COMMENT: The coronal hole effect, currently in progress, is
expected to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced until late
hours on 02 January or first half of 03 January. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to come down to quiet to unsettled levels
after that. Another coronal hole is taking geoeffective position
and it may cause a rise in geomagnetic activity from 04 January
onwards for a few days. Active to isolated minor storm periods
may be expected on 04 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions are possible at mid and high latitudes on 02
January. HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
03 January. HF condition may remain degraded on 04 January due
to an anciticipated rise in geomagnetic activity starting on
04 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressiong and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 47
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 85 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
04 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed especially in Southern
Australian/NZ regions on 02 and 04 January. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal on 03 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 66400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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