[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 1 10:48:42 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1824UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 106/55

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was moderate today. Region 
528(N09W93), on the western limb, produced the largest flare 
of the day, an M1.0 at 1824UT. The solar wind stream has been 
strengthened, most likely due to the anticipated coronal hole 
activity. The solar wind speed remained between 450 and 400 km/s 
(approx) during the first half of the UT day today and then 
increased in the second half of the UT day. The solar wind 
speed remained between 580 and 500 km/s (approx) during the 
second half of the UT day. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained near the normal 
value during the first half of the UT day and showed fluctuations 
between +5 and -10nT (approx) during the second half of the 
UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly at low 
levels during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 31 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2233 3334
      Darwin              13   2232 3434
      Townsville          14   2233 3434
      Learmonth           14   2233 3433
      Culgoora            11   1233 3323
      Canberra            13   2333 3334
      Hobart              11   2332 2334
      Casey(Ant)          24   --54 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   2132 2332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan    23    Mostly active. 
02 Jan    18    Unsettled to active 
03 Jan    12    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The coronal hole effect, currently in progress, 
is expected to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced on 
01 and 02 January, 2004. The geomagnetic activity is 
expected to remain mostly at active levels on 01 January 
and then gradually decrease to quiet to unsettled levels 
by 03 January. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and 
degradations in HF conditions are possible at mid and 
high latitudes during the next two days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Dec    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions and degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  50

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan    60    near predicted monthly values in northern regions
		/depressed 5 to 10% in southern regions. 
02 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Jan    85    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%. 
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and 
degradations in HF conditions may be observed in Southern 
Australian/NZ regions due to anticipated continuation of 
enhanced geomagnetic activity on 01 and 02 January. The 
T-index value in Southern Australian/NZ regions may remain 
close to approximately 40 units on 01 January. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    61500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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