[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Feb             24 Feb             25 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar region 564 in the NE solar quadrant continues 
to show growth and may produce flare activity over coming days 
if this development continues. The north south component of the 
IMF fluctuated southward during the UT day. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2112 4222
      Darwin               7   2112 3222
      Townsville           8   2112 4212
      Learmonth            9   2123 3232
      Culgoora             7   1112 4212
      Canberra             8   2212 4212
      Hobart               9   2122 4222
      Casey(Ant)          11   ---2 323-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 FEB : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2112 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active 
24 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active 
25 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests that isolated active periods can 
be expected in coming days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Feb    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 10-15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Feb    40    Depressed 5-15%/ near predicted monthly values. 
24 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed conditions may be experienced early 
in UT day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: A8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    57800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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