[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: A sunspot region (number 564) in the north-east solar 
quadrant has shown some growth over the past 24 hours. The north-south 
component of theinterplanetary magnetic field fluctuated southward 
during the second half of the UT day. Solarw wind speed remains 
relatively slow at 320-400km/sec. No sign yet of anticipated 
mild increase in solar wind speed from a coronal hole. No significant 
flare activity observed past 24 hours. Chance for increase in 
activity if growth rate of solar region 564 in north-east solar 
quadrant is sustained. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2112 3221
      Darwin               4   1111 2121
      Townsville           7   2212 3222
      Learmonth            7   2202 3222
      Culgoora             4   1101 3211
      Canberra             7   2112 3221
      Hobart               5   1111 3211
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--3 3122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1111 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb    14    Unsettled chance of isolated active periods. 
23 Feb    15    Unsettled chance of isolated active periods. 
24 Feb    15    Unsettled chance of isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests that a mild trend of increasing 
activity is expected in coming days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Feb    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
23 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
24 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: A8.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 386 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    43600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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