[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 17 10:40:57 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region
556(N15W55) produced a C1.6 flare at 0258UT. No other
significant activity was recorded. The solar wind stream
has started to weaken as the coronal hole is moving away
from the geoeffective position. The solar wind speed
decreased from 600 km/s to 450km/s by 1800UT and then
increased to 530 km/s (approx) in the next few hours.
The solar wind speed is again decreasing at the time of
this report and is approximately 500 km/s at the moment.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained very close to the normal value
throughout the UT day. The solar wind stream may be
expected to weaken further as the coronal hole moves
further away from the geoeffective position. The solar
activity is expected to remain very low during the next
three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods recorded at some high
latitude locations.
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 3111 2112
Darwin 5 3111 2112
Townsville 4 2111 2112
Learmonth 4 3111 1112
Culgoora 4 2111 2112
Canberra 4 2112 2112
Hobart 5 3111 2112
Casey(Ant) 14 4--3 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 FEB :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 4435 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
18 Feb 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
19 Feb 8 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods
possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline
during the next few days due to an anticipated weakening
of the solar wind stream during this period. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels on most locations with isolated active periods
possible at high latitudes on 17 February. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline further during the following
two days thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be
observed at high latitude locations on 17 February.
HF conditions are expected to remain normal on most
other locations during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 60 about 5% above predicted monthly values
19 Feb 60 about 5% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 682 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 576000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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