[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 600 to 500km/sec, over 
the UT day. Elevated solar wind speed due to coronal hole wind 
stream. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated mildly southward at times during the UT day. 
A mild increase in solar activity may occur in coming days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3321 3222
      Darwin              12   3321 3423
      Townsville           8   2321 3223
      Learmonth            8   3221 3221
      Culgoora             8   2321 3223
      Canberra             9   2331 3222
      Hobart               9   2332 3212
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--3 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 FEB : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            71   (Active)
      Hobart              91   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   2135 3121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
03 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
04 Feb    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Active periods possible next few days due to a coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF communications quality expected 
at mid to high latitudes due to anticpated activity induced by 
solar coronal hole. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Feb    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values 
03 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions possible briefly after local dawn for 
southern Aus/NZ regions over next few days. Northern Aus region 
MUFs enhanced after local dawn this morning. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 597 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   175000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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