[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 1 09:13:31 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed varied from 400 to 600 km/sec over
the UT day, and is presently moderately elevated at 600km/sec.
Elevated solar wind speed due to coronal hole wind stream. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field was
mildly southward the first half of the UT day then fluctuating
around neutral orientation. A mild increase in solar flux levels
and activity may occur in coming days, due to a possible new
active region which has just rotated around the east limb at
N16 and the possible return of region 537 on 02 Feb possibly
rotating around the east limb at around N4.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 2233 3222
Darwin 7 1223 2123
Townsville 8 1223 3222
Learmonth 10 2134 2221
Culgoora 7 1123 3211
Canberra 8 1133 3121
Hobart 9 2233 3122
Casey(Ant) 22 3--5 4232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 JAN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Culgoora 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 17 2335 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 18 Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period.
02 Feb 18 Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period.
03 Feb 18 Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 29 January and
is current for interval 30 January to 1 February. Geomagnetic
activity has been less than expected over past 24 hours. However,
mild to moderately increased geomagnetic activity remains expected
for the next few days, due to a coronal hole high speed wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF communications quality
expected at mid to high latitudes due to anticpated activity
induced by solar coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions expected for southern Aus/NZ
regions over next few days, particularly after local dawn, due
to anticipated moderate geomagnetic activity associated with
coronal hole high wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 585 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 274000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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