[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 04

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 2213
      Darwin               4   2111 2213
      Townsville           4   2011 2213
      Learmonth            5   2111 2312
      Culgoora             3   1111 1212
      Canberra             4   2111 1213
      Hobart               4   1221 1213
      Casey(Ant)           9   33-2 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1211 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
27 Dec    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Dec    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec    50    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
26 Dec    50    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
27 Dec    50    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    88000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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