[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 04

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 24 10:36:18 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Dec             25 Dec             26 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2122 2212
      Darwin               5   2121 2212
      Townsville           5   2122 2212
      Learmonth            5   2212 2212
      Culgoora             4   1121 1212
      Canberra             5   2122 2213
      Hobart               5   2221 2202
      Casey(Ant)          11   --33 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            18   (Quiet)
      Canberra            49   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              81   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             19   3445 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Dec    12    Unsettled 
25 Dec    13    Unsettled to Active 
26 Dec    17    active 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Dec    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Dec    45    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
25 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 517 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   197000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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