[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 04
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 24 10:36:18 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 2122 2212
Darwin 5 2121 2212
Townsville 5 2122 2212
Learmonth 5 2212 2212
Culgoora 4 1121 1212
Canberra 5 2122 2213
Hobart 5 2221 2202
Casey(Ant) 11 --33 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 81 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 19 3445 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 12 Unsettled
25 Dec 13 Unsettled to Active
26 Dec 17 active
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 45 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 197000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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