[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Dec             21 Dec             22 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined further from 550 to 400 km/sec 
over the UT day indicating the Earth is leaving the coronal hole 
wind stream. The Sun has been flare quiet over past 24 hours. 
A south polar coronal hole is located near solar central meridian. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1121 0122
      Darwin               3   1111 012-
      Townsville           3   1121 0022
      Learmonth            3   2111 1112
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             2   1120 001-
      Hobart               2   1121 0010
      Casey(Ant)           5   2--2 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   4422 3211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Dec     5    Quiet 
21 Dec     6    Quiet 
22 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the 
next two days. Active periods may be experienced 21-23 Dec due 
to a coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be nominal next two days, 
with quiet geomagnetic conditions. Mild degradation possible 
ofrom 21 Dec due to coronal hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Dec    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Dec    40    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Dec    40    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Dec    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected next two days. Mild 15% 
depression possible during interval 21-23Dec for southern Aus/NZ 
region in association with coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic 
activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 598 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   147000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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