[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Dec             20 Dec             21 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decline from 630 to 520 km/sec over 
the UT day indicating the Earth is leaving the coronal hole wind 
stream. The Sun has been flare quiet over past 24 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 18 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3223 4221
      Darwin              12   3223 4222
      Townsville          11   2223 4221
      Learmonth           12   3223 4221
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            13   3323 4220
      Hobart              12   3333 3221
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 4222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec : 
      Townsville           7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            65   (Active)
      Hobart              71   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15   3443 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Dec     6    Quiet 
20 Dec     5    Quiet 
21 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods observed past 24 hours. The 
field is expected to decline to quiet conditions, as the Earth 
is leaving the coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed in HF conditions over past 
24 hours. HF conditions expected to be nominal next three days, 
with quiet geomagnetic conditions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Dec    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Dec    35    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Dec    40    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Dec    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed conditions observed in Aus/NZ region 
yesterday. MUFs are expected to return to near predicted monthly 
values for the next three days. Some southern region sites may 
experience depressions of 15% after local dawn this morning, 
however, depressions are not expected to persist. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 629 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   207000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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