[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 24 09:42:08 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. There was
hardly any significant activity today. Region 663(N11E25)
produced the largest flare of the day, a B6.8 at 0227UT.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 430 km/s
to 380 km/s (approx.) during the UT-day. The anticipated
strengthening in the solar wind stream due to a coronal hole
effect did not eventuate yet. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mostly
slightly negative during the day. There is still some chance
for the solar wind stream to get strengthened during the
next two days due to the effect of a small coronal hole
that seems to be in a geo-effective position now. Regions
661(N07W61), which is still the largest region on the solar
disk, is continuing to decay.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1212
Darwin 4 2111 1212
Townsville 3 1111 1213
Learmonth 3 2011 1211
Culgoora 4 1111 1223
Canberra 3 0121 1212
Hobart 3 1111 1211
Casey(Ant) 5 1312 1211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 3344 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 14 Quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
25 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
26 Aug 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity may rise during the next
two days due to the effect of a small coronal hole. Mostly
quiet to unsettled periods are expected with possibility of
active periods during this period. The geomagnetic activity
is expected to decline thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on 24 and 25 August with some possibility of minor
to moderate depressions and degradations at high latitudes
due to an anticipated rise in the geomagnetic activity
during this period. The HF conditions are expected to
return to normal after this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% with periods of significant
depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
25 Aug 60 near monthly predicted values/depressed 5%.
26 Aug 68 near monthly predicted values/enhanced 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next 3 days in most Aus/NZ regions with some
possibility of minor depressions at times in the Southern
Aus/NZ during the first two days of this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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