[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 23 09:57:01 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. No
significant event was recorded. The solar wind speed
showed an increase at times from 440 km/s to 500 km/s
(approx.) during the first 8 hours of the UT-day and
then gradually decreased to 430 km/s by the time of
this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained mostly slightly negative
during the day. The solar wind stream may get strengthened
again from 23 August due to an anticipated coronal hole
effect. Regions 661(N07W48), which is currently the largest
region on the solar disk, is currently decaying.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 12 2334 2222
Darwin 13 2334 2322
Townsville 12 2334 2222
Learmonth 12 2234 2322
Culgoora 12 2334 2223
Canberra 12 2334 2223
Hobart 11 233- 2323
Casey(Ant) 11 3422 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 3443 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 13 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
24 Aug 16 Quiet to active. Isolated minor storm periods
possible on high latitudes.
25 Aug 16 Quiet to active. Isolated minor storm periods
possible on high latitudes.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity may rise during the next
three days due to the effect of a small coronal hole. Mostly
quiet to active periods are expected with some possibility
of isolated minor storm periods, especially on high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
25 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on 23 August with some possibility of minor to
moderate depressions and degradations at high latitudes.
Minor to moderate depressions are also possible on mid
and high latitudes on 24 and 25 August due to an anticipated
rise in the geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% with periods of significant
depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 60 near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
25 Aug 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next 24 hours in most Aus/NZ regions with some
possibility of minor depressions at times in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions. Minor to moderate depressions and degradations
may be observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 24 and 25 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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