[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 9 09:03:15 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Sep             10 Sep             11 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed started the UT day at 420km/sec reaching 
a daily minimum of 370km/sec at around 11UT, then began a steady 
increase reaching 480km/sec by the end of the UT day. This indicates 
that the Earth has entered the anticipated coronal hole wind 
stream. So far the north south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has been quite northward reducing the geoeffectiveness 
of this wind stream. ACE EPAM low energy ion monitor (increased flux 
levels on this instrument can be a pre-cursor to shock arrival), is 
showing a steady increase in flux during the second half of the UT day. 
A weak shock is expected to arrive second half of 9 Sep from the recent 
erupting solar filament. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   0112 1223
      Darwin              11   --33 -222
      Townsville           3   0011 2223
      Learmonth            3   0111 1222
      Canberra             1   0001 1113
      Hobart               2   0001 1122
      Casey(Ant)           7   2222 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            65   (Active)
      Hobart              52   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary             10   3312 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Sep    18    Unsettled to active, weak impulse late in UT 
                day. Chance minor storm periods following impulse. 
10 Sep    18    Initailly active, then declining. 
11 Sep    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 5 September 
and is current for interval 8-10 September. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity may be milder than forecast if northward 
orientation of Bz persists. Geomagnetic forecast has been eased 
for this reason. A weak impulse is expected is the geomagnetic 
field second half of UT day 9 Sep. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
10 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Anticiapted degradation period may not be as strong 
as originaly expected. Milder degradation now expected late 9-10 
Sep. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Sep    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Sep    70    near predicted monthly values 
10 Sep    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
11 Sep    70    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 7 September 
and is current for interval 9-10 September. Degradations now 
expected not to be as strong as originally forecast, due to weaker 
than expected geomagnetic activity. Mildly degraded conditions 
now expected for southern Aus/NZ region mostly during local night 
hours, and after local dawn late 9 and early 10 Sep. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 459 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    98300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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