[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 8 08:46:43 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Sep             09 Sep             10 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar region 450 located in the south-west quadrant 
of the solar disk produced a C5 flare with a slow decline at 
1407UT. This event has been reported to have caused a filament 
then located at S38W18 to erupt. This filament eruption is visible 
as a mass ejection on the south-west solar limb in LASCO C3 imagery. 
It is first visible around 1818UT. Ejecta expansion seems to 
be moderate, perhaps predominately westward directed. A glancing 
blow from this mass jection is expected late on 09 Sep. The Solar 
wind speed continued its decline from 550 to 400km/sec over the 
UT day. An increase in solar wind speed is expected in the next 
24 hours due to the Earth entering a high speed wind stream from 
a large coronal hole now just west of the centre of the solar 
disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1211
      Darwin               6   222- 2211
      Townsville           2   1110 0111
      Learmonth            4   2211 0120
      Canberra             2   1200 0211
      Hobart               1   1200 0101
      Casey(Ant)          10   3--3 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            65   (Active)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   3233 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Sep    20    Active, chance for minor storm periods. 
09 Sep    25    Active to minor storm. Sudden impulse expected 
                late in day. 
10 Sep    18    Initially Active to minor storm then declining. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 5 September 
and is current for interval 8-10 September. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity expected 8-10 Sep. In addition a coronal 
mass ejection asscoiated with an erupting solar filament is expected 
to arrive on 09 Sep. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
09 Sep      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor     
10 Sep      Normal         Fair           Fair          
COMMENT: Initially good HF conditions expected today, then becoming 
degraded at mid to high latitudes. Degradation expected to be 
strongest on 09 Sep due to combination of coronal hole high speed 
wind stream and mass ejection effects. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Sep    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Sep    70    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
09 Sep    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
10 Sep    40    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 7 September 
and is current for interval 9-10 September. Initially good HF 
condtions expected today, then becoming degraded. Degradations 
expected to be confined to southern Aus/NZ region mostly during 
local night hours, with depressions likely after local dawn 
on days 2 and 3 of forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 586 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   146000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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