[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 16 09:20:56 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to rise at the start of the
UT day reaching 700km/sec, declining slightly during the second
half of the UT day to around 600km/sec. Increased in solar wind
speed due to solar coronal hole wind stream. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward
by about 5nT for most of the UT day. Elevated wind speed conditions
expected until about 19 Oct, due to longitudinal extent of coronal
hole. The Sun was again flare quiet over past 24 hours.
Solar region 464 is due for return to the northeast limb
of the Sun on 17 Oct. Whilst this region was quite large and
cpmlex it only produced a single M1 event on its previous
transit.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 29 4455 4333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 27 3445 5334
Learmonth 32 3355 5443
Culgoora 23 3345 4333
Canberra 29 4455 4333
Hobart 35 4456 4433
Casey(Ant) 28 4544 43--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 OCT :
Townsville 16 (Quiet)
Learmonth 64 (Active)
Culgoora 155 (Severe storm)
Canberra 138 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 42
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 48 3466 6456
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 20 active, isolated minor storm periods.
17 Oct 18 active
18 Oct 18 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 12 October
and is current for interval 14-16 October. Extended period of
active conditions expected due to broad coronal hole. Isolated
minor storm conditions probable local night hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
17 Oct Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
18 Oct Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Degraded and depressed conditions observed
yesterday. Continued degradation (with marginal improvement)
for mid to high latitude HF conditions expected today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% 03-06UT, at Port Moresby.
Vanimo MUFs remained near predicted monthly values.
Near predicted monthly values after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Variable conditions. MUFs ar Darwin depressed
40% 03-06 UT and 20% until 10 UT.
Townsville enhanced 30% 01-03UT, depressed 20%
04-05UT. Learmonth enhanced 30% 06-07UT, depressed
30% 03-05UT and 09-12 UT.
15% depressed to near normal after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 30 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 45 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 12 October
and is current for interval 15-16 October. Strong depression
observed in southern Aus/NZ region MUFs during local day yesterday.
Northern region MUFs were not as immune as predicted, with highly
variable MUFs observed after 02UT 15 Oct. Southern region MUFs
(with the exception of Christchurch NZ) expected to again be
depressed during daylight hours today. Northern region MUFs may
be initially depressed but should recover quickly as the day
progresses. Generally lower than normal MUFs are expected over
the next few days, particularly for southern Aus region due to
expected sustained geomagnetic activity from a broad coronal
hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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