[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*  ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Oct             02 Oct             03 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: There is the chance of M-class flare activity from solar 
regions 464 and 471. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 2212
      Darwin              12   -33- --22
      Townsville           4   2120 2112
      Learmonth            4   1220 2212
      Canberra             5   2220 2202
      Hobart               5   2221 2212
      Casey(Ant)           7   2332 110-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2213 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
02 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
03 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: A weak partial halo CME observed on 28 September and 
likely to be associated wit the disappearing solar filament reported 
during 28 September may produce slightly elevated geomagnetic 
activity for 1-2 October with active levels possible. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions may be observed at times 
for 01-02 Oct, otherwise conditions should remain mostly normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Sep    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Oct    80    Mostly 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values, 
                with possible small depressions at times later 
                in the UT day. 
02 Oct    80    Possible small depressions at times otherwise 
                mostly 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values. 
03 Oct    85    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions may be observed at times 
for 01-02 Oct, otherwise conditions should remain mostly normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 314 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    17700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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