[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    0451UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: An impulsive M1-class flare was produced by region 464 
at 01/0444UT. A possible very weak sweep signature was observed 
on Culgoora radiospectrograph about this time. No significant 
geoeffective consequences are expected. There is a possibility 
of further C to M-class activity from regions 464 and 471 today. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1222 1113
      Darwin              11   -23- ----
      Townsville           4   2212 1113
      Learmonth            4   2112 1124
      Canberra             3   1112 1113
      Hobart               4   1122 1113
      Casey(Ant)           5   1312 210-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7   2223 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A minor step increase in low energy proton fluxes observed 
early in the UT day was possibly associated with the filament 
eruption observed on 28-SEP. Solar wind speed continued to decline 
over the UT day to less than 300 km/s. IMF magnetic field maintained 
a slight southward bias throughout the UT day, with one excursion 
to -10 nT late in the day. Geomagnetic disturbance remained minimal 
due to the sustained low solar wind velocities. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect normal to enhanced HF propagation conditions 
over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 10-20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct   100    20 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
03 Oct   100    20 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
04 Oct   100    20 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect normal to enhanced ionospheric propagation conditions 
for the next few days. Isolated periods of daytime absorption 
and spread-F conditions observed at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B6.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 306 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    31400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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