[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 20 11:10:16 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0401UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 200/152 210/161
COMMENT: Solar regions 506, 505 and 501 have the chance of producing
further M-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 2222 2323
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 9 2223 3223
Learmonth 8 2122 3323
Culgoora 7 1222 2322
Canberra 8 2222 2322
Hobart 8 2222 2322
Casey(Ant) 13 --33 2333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 NOV :
Townsville 14 (Quiet)
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Culgoora 52 (Unsettled)
Canberra 79 (Active)
Hobart 86 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20 4444 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 30 Unsettled early in the UT day with minor storm
periods possible later in the UT day.
21 Nov 20 Unsettled to active
22 Nov 15 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 55 was issued on 19 November
and is current for interval 19-21 November. Solar wind parameters
indicate coronal hole effects have continued to decline over
the past 24 hours. A possible glancing blow from the CME associated
with the M3-flare observed on 18 November is expected during
the latter half of the UT day of 20 November. Minor storm levels
are possible following the impact of the CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions should remain mostly normal with mild
depressions possible for late 20 November to 21 November as the
result of anticipated increased geomagnetic activity during the
latter half of the UT day of 20 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 75 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Nov 65 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 Nov 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 88 was issued on 18 November
and is current for interval 19-21 November (SWFs) . HF conditions
should remain mostly normal with mild depressions possible for
late 20 November to 21 November as the result of anticipated
increased geomagnetic activity during the latter half of the
UT day of 20 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+08 (high)
X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 707 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 236000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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