[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 19 10:55:57 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3/2N 0752UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M4/-- 1011UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Moderate Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Possible Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 190/143 220/170
COMMENT: Active region 501 produced an M1.8 level impulsive flare
at 0130UT, and a long duration M3.2 level flare at 0730. The
second flare was one of a complex series of M level activity
lasting several hours. A Type II radio sweep was observed on
the Culgoora radiospectrograph at 0750UT with an estimated shock
speed of 420 km/s. There was an associated full halo CME first
visible in LASCO imagery at 0840UT. An earth-directed shock from
this event is expected on day two of the forecast period. Sacramento
Peak Observatory reports intense Ca XV emission on the east limb
associated with the expected return today of previous X-class
flare producing regions 486 and 488.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 16 3333 4333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 15 3333 3333
Learmonth 15 3333 4322
Culgoora 15 3323 4333
Canberra 18 3333 4433
Hobart 17 3433 4322
Casey(Ant) 24 4--4 4433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 NOV :
Townsville 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 78 (Active)
Culgoora 126 (Severe storm)
Canberra 188 (Severe storm)
Hobart 185 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 34 5445 5544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 35 Active to Minor storm
20 Nov 50 Storm levels
21 Nov 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain elevated due to the persisting
coronal hole wind stream. Solar wind velocity has declined steadily
over the UT day as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective
range. Coronal hole wind stream effects should decline to near
normal levels over the next day. There is a possibility of increased
geomagnetic activity today due to a glancing blow from the CME
observed on Nov 17. There is a high probability of significant
disturbance up to severe storm levels at times due to a strong
shock from a full halo CME observed around 0830UT today.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
20 Nov Poor Poor Poor
21 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions returning to normal after a prolonged
period of coronal hole wind stream induced disturbance. High
latitudes can expect further isolated periods of disturbance
today. There is a good possibility of further geomagnetic activity
at all latitudes over the next few days due to shocks following
recent solar flare activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
with extended local periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
20 Nov 35 about 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Nov 50 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally improving HF conditions observed at all latitudes
as geomagnetic disturbance due to coronal hole wind stream subsides.
Expect continuing periods of disturbance at high latitudes today.
There is a good possibility of degraded conditions on day two
due to anticipated geomagnetic disturbance associated with a
full halo CME observed early today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08 (high)
X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 759 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 296000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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