[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 2 10:54:44 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0852UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1/-- 1751UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 210/161
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 190/143 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Three low M-class
and several C-class flares were recorded- the largest being a
>M2 event that peaked at 2234UT, the time when this report was
being written. The location of this flare could not be determined
as yet due to unavailability of data. However, this flare was
co-related to a Type II radio burst which, according to Culgoora
Presto Alert, indicates a shock speed of 962 km/s. Region
488(N08W42) has been very active today and it produced at least
two M-flares and at least two C-class flares.Due to the
unavailability of LASCO data at this stage, it could not be
possible to comfirm if any of the flare activities had any
CME activity associated with it. Region 486(S17W49) is still
the largest region on the solar disk and it has also been quite
active and it produced at least three C-class flares. Both
these regions are magnetically very complex and hold potential
for major flares. The effect of the CME, that arrived on 30
October, seems to have subsided to a good extent. The solar
wind speed gradually declined from 800 km/s to 600 km/s
(approx) over the UT day by the time of this report. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(BZ) showed minor fluctuations around the normal value
throughout the UT day. The >10MeV proton event ended at
1040UT/01 November. Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 18 4433 3333
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 15 4333 3233
Learmonth 15 4323 3333
Culgoora 11 3333 2223
Canberra 18 4433 3333
Hobart 21 4444 3333
Casey(Ant) 21 4443 3344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 NOV :
Townsville 44 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 69 (Active)
Culgoora 126 (Severe storm)
Canberra 171 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 73
Planetary 93 8776 6544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 12 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
03 Nov 10 Mostly quiet. Unsettled periods possible.
04 Nov 10 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity decreased today as the
current CME effect showed signs of subsiding. The weakening
of the solar wind stream and continued holding of Bz around
the normal value were mainly responsible for the reduction
in the geomagnetic activity levels. The decline in the
geomagnetic activity is expected to continue. However, the
solar wind stream is still strong enough to raise the
geomagnetic activity to active or minor storm levels on 02
November UT day if Bz turns southwards. Also due to the
unavailablity of data at this time, it could not be confirmed
if today's >M2 flare was associated with any CME activity. If
the event could be associated with a CME activity, the forecast
for geomagnetic activity may need to be changed depending on
the characteristics of the CME activity that are yet to be determined.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : Began at 1215UT 28/10, Ended at 0945UT 01/11
and, Began at 1015UT 01/11, Ended at 1040UT 01/11
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations, except for some minor to mild degradations
possible on high latitudes on 02 November UT day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day with periods
of significant depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 52
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 80 05 to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Nov 80 05 to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Nov 85 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 31 October
and is current for interval 1-3 November (SWFs) . HF conditions
in Aus/NZ region are expected to remain mostly normal during
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed:1012 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 64500 K Bz: 8 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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