[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 1 10:57:36 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 0616UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2/-- 0433UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 249/199
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 240/189 230/180 220/170
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Three low M-class
and four C-class flares were recorded- the largest being an M2.0
at 0433UT. Region 488(N08W42) has been quite active today and
produced an M1.1 flare at 0616UT and at least two C-class flares.
None of these flares could be co-related to any other event.
The effect of the CME, that arrived on 30 October, kept the solar
wind stream at exceptionally high velocity of approximately 1200
km/s in the early hours of the UT day today. The solar wind speed
gradually declined to approximately 800 km/s by the time of this
report. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (BZ) fluctuated between -10nT and +20nT (approx) during
the first two hours of the UT day and then settled mildly
northwards and remained positive during the rest of the day,
although continuously showing a gradual downward variation towards
the normal value. The >100MeV proton event came to an end at
0145UT/31 October. The PCA event has also ended. The >10MeV
proton event is still going on, although rapidly declining.
The >10MeV event is expected to end in the early hours of 01
November UT day. Region 486 (S17W36) and 488 are still maintaining
very large sizes and complexity. Regions 488 and 486 hold strong
potential to produce major flares. Solar activity is expected to
remain moderate to high during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Active to
Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 119 8876 6446
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 127 8876 7447
Learmonth 93 7766 7547
Culgoora 94 7866 6436
Canberra 96 7866 6446
Hobart 131 9875 5435
Casey(Ant) 96 8776 5335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 OCT :
Townsville 172 (Severe storm)
Learmonth 170 (Severe storm)
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 75
Planetary 110
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 144
Planetary 162 8765 5899
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 30 Major to minor storm, declining to possible active
periods.
02 Nov 15 Mostly unsettled. Quiet periods possible.
03 Nov 10 Mostly quiet. Unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 52 was issued on 30 October
and is current for interval 30 October to 1 November. The
severe geomagnetic storm continued for most of the first half
of the UT day today. Since the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) settled moderately northwards
in the early hours of the UT day and remained moderately to
mildly northwards, and also since the solar wind speed showed
a continuous decrease over the UT day, the geomagnetic activiy
showed a decline to active levels between 1400UT and 2000UT
(approx.). A continuous downward trend in the variation of Bz
together with a high solar wind speed again seem to have raised
the geomagnetic activity to major storm levels at several locations.
This rise in geomagnetic activity is expected to continue during
the first half of the UT day 01 November with a possible
continous decline to minor storm and then active conditions.
The geomagnetic conditions are expected to show a continuous
gradual decline over the next 3 days down to mostly quiet
conditions by day 3 of the period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Poor-normal Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 10 2003 1215UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to gradually improve during
the second half of the UT day 01 November on low and mid latitudes.
The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly poor on high
latitudes for most part of the 01 November. All locations are
expected to show improvements in HF condtions thereafter.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values with mild to moderated
depressions during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event ended, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 50 near monthly prediceted values/ enhanced 05 to
10%
03 Nov 60 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 30 October
and is current for interval 30 October to 1 November. HF conditions
in Aus/NZ region may to show mild to moderate depressions during
the first half of UT day 01 November. HF conditions are expected
to improve thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 281 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 85400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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