[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind speed rose from 400km/sec to 600km/sec as 
the earth entered the anticipated coronal hole high speed wind 
stream. Solar regions 349 and 348 have about two days to go before 
rotating off disk, and have yet to produce significant activity. 
region 349 appears to be declining. US Big Bear observatory 
reports that region 348 continued to develop but at a slower 
pace, and that it now has a weak "delta" magnetic configuration 
(two mag polarites contained in same spot, within a sunspot group). 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   1322 2333
      Darwin               9   2322 23-3
      Townsville           8   1322 2233
      Learmonth            9   1322 23-3
      Canberra             8   0222 2333
      Hobart               7   1222 2233
      Casey(Ant)          14   3442 2-1-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3212 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May    20    Unsettled to Active with isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
07 May    18    Unsettled to active 
08 May    14    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 2 May and is 
current for interval 5-7 May. Active conditions expected 6-7 
May due to another coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes 6-7 May 
due to anticipated entry into coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 May    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  72

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    70    10-15% depressed (South Aus)/10-15% enhanced 
                (North Aus) 
07 May    70    10-15% depressed (South Aus)/10-15% enhanced 
                (North Aus) 
08 May    80    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs expected to become mildly 
depressed/degraded late 06-07 May. Northern Aus region MUFs are 
expected to remain unaffected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B5.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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