[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has declined to 350km/sec. However, 
an increasing trend in wind speed is expected today, due to another 
coronal hole wind stream. Solar regions have been relatively 
quiet over past 24 hours. However, solar region 348 to the south 
of large region 349 (mostly stable) continues to show growth. 
Both these regions are located in the south-west quadrant of 
the solar disk. Isolated low level M class flares possible. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2112 2112
      Darwin               5   2112 2213
      Townsville           4   2112 2113
      Learmonth            4   2112 2112
      Canberra             4   2102 2111
      Hobart               4   2112 2111
      Casey(Ant)          12   332- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 MAY : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   2333 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May    17    Unsettled to Active with isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
06 May    20    Unsettled to Active with isolated minor storm 
                periods possible. 
07 May    18    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 2 May and is 
current for interval 5-7 May. Active conditions expected 5-7 
May due to another coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes 5-7 May 
due to anticipated entry into coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 May    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May    70    near predicted monthly values 
06 May    60    10-15% depressed (South Aus)/10-15% enhanced 
                (North Aus) 
07 May    60    10-15% depressed (South Aus)/10-15% enhanced 
                (North Aus) 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 2 May 
and is current for interval 3-5 May (SWFs) . Southern Aus/NZ 
region MUFs expected to become mildly depressed/degraded late 
05-07 May. Northern Aus region MUFs are expected to remain unaffected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 506 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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