[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: A C1 level flare originating from newly-arrived region 
318 occurred at 1146UT. This event was associated with a narrow, 
eastward-directed CME and eruptive filament observed in LASCO 
imagery. No geoeffective consequence is expected. An equatorial 
coronal hole is approaching geoeffective location. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3244 3333
      Darwin              15   3244 2233
      Townsville          19   3245 3233
      Learmonth           19   3245 2333
      Canberra            17   3244 3333
      Hobart              13   2243 2333
      Casey(Ant)          24   4-54 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 MAR : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            87   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              64   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   3444 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
25 Mar    20    active 
26 Mar    25    active 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has remained elevated, with continuing 
short term fluctuations in interplanetary magnetic field polarity. 
In response to these conditions, there was a brief period of 
active conditions in the first half of the UT day, with minor 
storm conditions observed at high latitudes. An equatorial coronal 
hole is approaching geoeffective location. Solar wind speed commenced 
a steady upward trend towards the end of the UT day. Unsettled 
to active conditions are anticipated for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair          
25 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor     
26 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Ionospheric depressions observed at low latitudes local 
night hours and briefly after local dawn. Variable localised 
periods of disturbance at high latitudes in association with 
localised geomagnetic disturbance. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Mildly depressed during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values, with localised 
      periods of disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Mar   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
26 Mar    75    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Continuing periods of geomagnetic disturbance have resulted 
in variable ionospheric depressions at low latitudes and extended 
localised periods of disturbance at high latitudes. An equatorial 
coronal hole is moving into geoeffective location and further 
ionospheric degradations are expected mid-week. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 619 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   161000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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