[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 03

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 3223
      Darwin              12   3333 3223
      Townsville          13   3334 3124
      Learmonth           12   3333 3123
      Canberra            13   2334 3223
      Hobart              10   2233 3223
      Casey(Ant)          13   3-43 21--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 MAR : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           153   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              82   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             29   5545 4334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
24 Mar    12    Unsettled 
25 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Isolated active to minor storm periods were observed 
at high latitudes only. Solar wind speed has gradually declined 
over the UT day, but remains somewhat elevated at around 600 
km/s. The present coronal hole wind stream effects are expected 
to decline over the next few days. A small equatorial coronal 
hole is now approaching central solar meridian. Recurrence suggests 
a possible brief return to active geomagnetic conditions mid-week. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Ionospheric depressions observed at mid to high latitudes, 
especially local night hours. Variable localised periods of disturbance 
at high latitudes in association with localised geomagnetic disturbance. 
Expect generally improving HF conditions today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Mar    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Slightly below predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      About 10% below predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      with extended periods of localised disturbance.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Mar    90    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Mar   100    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Conditions should gradually improve over the next few 
days. A recurrent small coronal hole will move into geoeffective 
position mid-week causing possible brief ionospheric degradation, 
mostly to southern regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 680 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   263000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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