[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Mar             11 Mar             12 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             145/99
COMMENT: There is the small chance of an M-class flare from solar 
regions 296, 304 and 306. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2321 2223
      Darwin               8   3321 2223
      Townsville           5   2221 2113
      Learmonth            6   2221 2223
      Canberra             8   2321 3223
      Hobart               8   2320 3224
      Casey(Ant)          15   3442 13--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              9   1121 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Mar   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhaced at all
stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Mar   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
11 Mar   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
12 Mar   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    86400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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