[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Mar             10 Mar             11 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            145/99
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters are returning towards typical 
background values as the high speed coronal hole solar wind stream 
subsides. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2222 3332
      Darwin               9   2222 2332
      Townsville          10   2222 3333
      Learmonth            9   2222 2332
      Canberra             9   1222 3332
      Hobart              10   2222 3332
      Casey(Ant)          16   --43 23--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 MAR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            83   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              81   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14   3334 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet 
to unsettled with possible isolated active periods for 9-11 March. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however, isolated small depressions are 
possible at times for mid-latitude regions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Mar   107

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with
      isolated depressions of 15-30% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  82

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Mar   105    Isolated depressions of 5-15% at times to enhanced 
                5-10% 
10 Mar   110    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
11 Mar   110    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for 
the next three days, however, isolated small depressions are 
possible at times for southern regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    94400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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