[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 10 09:53:26 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/1N 1128UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Due to continued growth in regions 375 and 380 there
has been a general increase in background X-ray flux levels.
Superimposed flare activity has resulted in a number of high
C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. Region 375 produced
an impulsive M4 level flare at 1120UT with an associated Type
II radio sweep reported. LASCO C3 imagery showed an northeast
directed CME from this event, which does not appear earth-directed.
An X1 level flare occured at 2140UT. Culgoora radiospectrograph
recorded a strong Type II sweep in association with this event.
The flare was impulsive in nature, and no optical correlation
was possible. Further M- to X- class activity is possible today
from the currently visible active regions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 16 3333 4335
Darwin 15 3333 3334
Townsville 16 3333 4335
Learmonth 16 3333 4335
Canberra 16 3333 4335
Hobart 15 3333 4234
Casey(Ant) 15 3433 3236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 JUN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 59 (Unsettled)
Canberra 117 (Major storm)
Hobart 155 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27 4543 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 25 active
11 Jun 20 active
12 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: There was a general decline in solar wind speed over
the first half of the UT day, followed by an increasing trend
over the second half. Interplanetary magnetic field Bz has shown
mild polarity fluctuations about an average neutral value, but
trended moderately southward late in the UT day. There was a
significant increase in solar wind proton and electron fluxes
at the time of wind speed inflection, suggesting a further period
of coronal hole induced disturbance today. These effects are
expected to decline after tomorrow. At the time of report issue
there is a major to minor magnetic storm period in progress.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
11 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Moderate overnight depressions observed S Aus region.
Extended periods of disturbance observed at high latitudes. HF
conditions expected to be degraded at mid to high latitudes over
next few days due to coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Exteneded periods of disturbance. Widespread spread-F
conditions observed. Absorption around local dawn.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 70 Near predicted values/enhanced equatorial/PNG
region. Near predicted monthly values with mild
overnight or post-dawn depressions Aus/NZ regions.
Generally poor conditions in Antarctic regions.
11 Jun 80 near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate overnight depressions observed S Aus regions.
Extensive and occasionally intense sporadic-E and spread-F conditions
observed S Ocean/Antarctic regions with absorption observed around
local dawn. Expect similar localised conditions today. Degraded
HF conditions expected next few days due to further coronal hole
induced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 756 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 280000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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